Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 0.229443 0.277238 0.335052 0.410947 0.509167 0.633680 8.062257e-01
2025-05-11 0.154298 0.202743 0.267949 0.364371 0.507303 0.718135 1.066316e+00
2025-05-18 0.106771 0.149503 0.211975 0.313648 0.482603 0.767556 1.322665e+00
2025-05-25 0.076615 0.113000 0.169973 0.270651 0.455884 0.809870 1.621900e+00
2025-06-01 0.059982 0.092967 0.148171 0.254076 0.470581 0.944267 2.256202e+00
2025-06-08 0.048265 0.078206 0.131443 0.241739 0.491490 1.118474 3.251001e+00
2025-06-15 0.040054 0.067639 0.119566 0.235471 0.526261 1.370020 4.995390e+00
2025-06-22 0.033735 0.059138 0.109523 0.230148 0.564559 1.689928 7.966498e+00
2025-06-29 0.027899 0.050367 0.096821 0.214559 0.569511 1.930548 1.168822e+01
2025-07-06 0.021388 0.039106 0.076411 0.173375 0.476985 1.714305 1.176737e+01
2025-07-13 0.018620 0.034982 0.070795 0.169138 0.504105 2.074516 1.946678e+01
2025-07-20 0.016755 0.032398 0.068102 0.172226 0.562299 2.723248 3.903916e+01
2025-07-27 0.015176 0.030282 0.066383 0.179062 0.650793 3.867103 1.037629e+02
2025-08-03 0.013570 0.027807 0.063203 0.180450 0.723453 5.255103 3.005993e+02
2025-08-10 0.011904 0.024896 0.058197 0.173796 0.754935 6.532445 8.545807e+02
2025-08-17 0.010420 0.022169 0.053073 0.164762 0.768455 7.836978 2.779292e+03
2025-08-24 0.009470 0.020594 0.050838 0.166041 0.852311 11.010489 3.336587e+04
2025-08-31 0.008653 0.019209 0.048835 0.167596 0.947705 15.854241 1.752782e+07
2025-09-07 0.007990 0.018109 0.047434 0.171365 1.075029 24.346966 NaN
2025-09-14 0.007390 0.017075 0.045997 0.174514 1.213179 38.223630 NaN
2025-09-21 0.006696 0.015674 0.043037 0.168909 1.263343 51.467048 NaN
2025-09-28 0.005697 0.013301 0.036380 0.141803 1.044774 40.307282 NaN
2025-10-05 0.005286 0.012521 0.034985 0.141694 1.136152 60.262016 NaN